Overreach

Starred review from June 1, 2023
A respected journalist draws on deep knowledge to explain the thinking behind Putin's invasion of Ukraine. In 1939, Churchill called Russia "a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma." These words seem truer than ever in the context of the invasion of Ukraine, but Matthews does a solid job of unraveling the story. He is a good person for the task, with several decades of experience covering events in Moscow. He has extensive personal and professional connections in Russia and chronicles his illuminating interviews with numerous Kremlin insiders and senior commentators (in many cases, he does not disclose their names or specific positions). The author focuses on Putin's decision, aided by his inner circle, to launch the offensive and then, when the planned blitzkrieg failed, to double down for a protracted conflict. In particular, Matthews examines a lengthy 2021 essay in which Putin asserted that Ukraine was historically part of Russia. In Putin's eyes, he was forced into the invasion by Ukraine's Westward drift, and NATO's aid for Ukraine cemented his view. With near-complete control of the media, he has been able to depict Ukrainian defiance and Western support as attacks on Russia's sovereignty. This is ludicrous, writes Matthews, but Putin believes it, and much of the population apparently agrees with him. This means that Putin cannot afford to lose, and his threat of using nuclear weapons should be taken seriously. Unfortunately, if Putin should fall, his replacements are likely to be even worse, so the West should tread carefully. Matthews believes that, eventually, there will be some sort of settlement--although even the prospect of talks is a long way off, with both sides currently maneuvering for battlefield advantage. Russia's invasion might be a geopolitical turning point, but it is undeniably a painful one. Writing with authority and clarity, Matthews weaves disparate events into a bloody tapestry of invasion and resistance.

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